The just-released, annual “Medellin Como Vamos” (MCV) citizen survey reveals that Medellin Mayor Daniel Quintero has delivered the worst performance of any Medellin Mayor in the entire 16 years of MCV annual citizen surveys.

The result undercuts progress made in the last two decades here, during which Medellin citizens historically have indicated relatively positive, consistent improvements -- aside from ever-worsening traffic-jams -- in over-all quality-of-life and in relatively good performance of local Mayors.

Having overcome the horrific years of Pablo Escobar narco-violence in the 1980s and 1990s, Medellin has more recently become widely regarded as either the best or (at least) among the top-three-best-governed cities in Colombia, for quality-of-life, for work opportunities and for relatively outstanding public transit systems -- thanks to enormous investments by both public and private sectors over the past two decades.

The full MCV 2021 survey (in Spanish) is available here: https://www.medellincomovamos.org/calidad-de-vida/encuesta-de-percepcion-ciudadana .

While Medellin Mayors over the past 16 years have typically enjoyed favorability rankings in the 80-percent-to-90-percent range, Mayor Quintero has seen his favorability plunge to an all-time-worst 54% in the MCV 2021 survey, conducted among all social classes in all Medellin neighborhoods. The survey has a margin-of-error of just 4.1%, according to MCV.

Confidence in Mayor Quintero likewise has plummeted to an all-time-low of 34%, while only 33% of citizens have much or any faith in his management of city affairs – by far the worst mayor in all prior MCV surveys.

Relative satisfaction with Mayor Quintero’s use of public funds likewise has collapsed to an all-time-low of 36%, the survey shows. What’s more, 54% of citizens perceive that corruption in city government has gotten twice as bad in the past year -- far worse than in prior years.

Even more discouraging, only 45% of Medellin citizens now feel the city is headed in a positive direction -- down from positivity ranges of 65% to 85% in all prior MCV surveys.

Colombia’s Controller-General announced today (January 28) that because of recent insurance payments to EPM by Mapfre, Axxa, Suramericana and SBS – collectively totaling US$1.1 billion -- all companies, politicians and officials who previously faced allegations of errors or omissions that supposedly contributed to a 2018 diversion-tunnel collapse at the US$5 billion Hidroituango hydroelectric project are now absolved of fiscal responsibility.

“The Controller's Office declares the property damage of COP$4.3 trillion [US$1.1 billion] in the Hidroituango case fully repaired,” according to the Controller’s official announcement.

“By virtue of this decision, the precautionary measures that weighed on those declared fiscally responsible are lifted” -- hence liberating 26 companies and individuals that previously were facing fiscal responsibility charges, according to the Controller.

Because of the Hidroituango insurance payments, the Controller “determined and declared that the damage has been fully repaired,” according to the official announcement.

In the wake of the Controller’s decision, Wall Street bond rater Fitch Ratings subsequently announced that it now sees financial liquidity improving not only for EPM (part-owner of Hidroituango) but also for the construction and consulting contractors at the Hidroituango project.

While Fitch now has a more positive view of EPM’s financial liquidity, the bond rater nevertheless has continued its “negative watch” alert because of “continued uncertainty regarding the permanent closure of Hidroituango's blocked water deviation tunnel since April 28, 2018, and final cost overruns of its Hidroituango project, which Fitch estimates to be US$1.73 billion or US$721,000 per megawatt (MW) as of December 2021. 

Hidroituango Progress Update

Immediately following the Controller’s announcement, EPM revealed that it is making significant progress on permanent closure of that collapsed diversion tunnel.

“In 2019, as a result of the tunnel-collapse contingency, the two floodgates installed for this diversion tunnel -- weighing 300 tons each -- were closed to prevent further passage of water,” according to EPM’s announcement.

“In recent days it became possible to enter the [collapsed] Auxiliary Deviation Gallery (GAD), very positive for the recovery of the project and for the tranquility of the downstream communities.

“With the pumping-out of the water that was in this tunnel area, it was possible to allow entry of sufficient personnel and machinery to carry out the proper cleaning and extraction of debris and mud. After the adaptation and cleaning of the GAD, the construction of the two definitive plugs -- 22 meters long -- will need to be installed there,” according to EPM.

In total, the Hidroituango project at year-end 2021 was 86.9% complete, with entry-into-operation of the first two generating units -- totalling 600-MW -- seen in the second half of 2022, according to EPM.

“The powerhouse shows considerable progress in its recovery, civil works and assembly of equipment,” according to EPM, while the water reservoir upstream of the dam and the engineered spillway “are closely monitored with permanent with special equipment and expert personnel,” the company added.

Colombia Health Minister Fernando Ruiz announced this morning (January 24) that total vaccinations against Covid-19 here have now surpassed 70 million.

What’s more, as of January 22, 2022, 30.78 million Colombians had received complete dosages (in most cases two shots, or else the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine).

In addition, 5.1 million Colombians have now gotten a “reinforcement” dose (in most cases, a third shot), according to Minister Ruiz (see graphic, above).

Meanwhile, Health Ministry epidemiology director Julián Fernández announced January 21 that the Omicron variant continues as the overwhelming type of Covid-19 now found here.

Nationwide, more than 90,000 Colombians are (on average) tested daily for Covid-19, and “peak” Omicron infection rates are now “evident,” Fernández stated.

While hospital intensive-care unit (ICU) capacities are at 100% in some areas as a result of the Omicron surge, there’s still spare ICU capacity in other areas, he said.

Unfortunately, Covid-related deaths have risen over the past week in Antioquia, Medellin, Cali, Valle del Cauca and Bogotá, he said.

The rise in Covid-related deaths “isn’t proportional as in past [Covid-case surges],” he said, as the Omicron variant appears to be less-severe than prior variants – about 40-to-70% less severe.

However, to stem the rising tide of Covid cases, the remaining unvaccinated Colombians should get vaccinated, while vulnerable populations – especially those over 50 years old -- should get the reinforcement shot, he added.

As for children, the Sinovac vaccine appears to be the most effective, with the fewest numbers of side-effects, he added. This is an encouraging sign as more and more Colombian children are returning to in-person classes this year, rather than home-based internet learning.

In total, just 0.05% of vaccinated Colombians have reported adverse side effects from the Covid shots, he said. In contrast, unvaccinated Colombians remain five times more likely to suffer severe illness and death from Covid infections, he added.

A stunning final report from Finland-based hydroelectric-project engineering consultant Pöyry finds that the current contractors building the US$5 billion Hidroituango hydroelectric project in Antioquia should continue to finish the project as quickly as possible, rather than be replaced.

Contractor continuation is the safest and fastest route to avoid a possibly catastrophic collapse of the dam, the report concludes.

The current situation -- where 100% of Cauca River flow goes over Hidroituango’s engineered spillway rather than through still-under-construction power turbines -- eventually could cause catastrophic erosion at the base of the dam, as years-long 100% spillway evacuation was never part of the engineering design, the report finds.

The Pöyry report -- contracted by Hidroituango project manager EPM but until now kept secret – not only fails to support conspiracy narratives pushed by Medellin Mayor Daniel Quintero, who chairs EPM’s Board of Directors.

Instead, the Pöyry report –just unveiled by investigative journalists at IFM Noticias (see: https://ifmnoticias.com/aparecio-el-informe-poyry/) – completely contradicts Quintero’s frantic push to replace the current Hidroituango contractors with some new contractors, who (unlike the current contractors) presumably would become politically beholden to Quintero.

The 427-page report not only reveals details of undiscovered, dangerous geological faults in and around the Hidroituango project – faults that unfortunately triggered an enormously costly 2018 collapse of a crucial diversion tunnel – but also recommends crucial measures to avoid a potentially catastrophic dam collapse.

According to the report, any change of the current project consultants and main contractors would cause a “delay in the definition of mitigation measures and in the execution of stabilization works.

“Changing the main actors in this project should be avoided. It would mean significant delays -- minimum one year -- and reduce the traceability in the recovery of the project. In addition, it will increase the overall cost of the project,” the Pöyry report finds.

“Hiring a new contractor for a project the size of Hidroituango will take several months just to define the terms and conditions. Even more so given that there are still parts of the project where it has not been possible to access or define the repair engineering.

“Considering additionally the history and background of the [2018 diversion-tunnel collapse] contingency, it will be a challenge to find a company or a consortium that accepts these conditions without limitations. All guarantees and global responsibility for the proper execution of the works will be lost.

“On the engineering side of the project, it should be estimated that a new consultant would take months to verify all the information provided and generated by the consultancy before it can develop new engineering with solutions for the completion of the project,” the report adds.

“From the point of view of the project and the main interest in advancing as quickly as possible in starting up the first generation units, a change of the main contractor and the consultancy is not recommended and puts at risk the progress of the works currently accumulated. Additionally, there will be a risk that there will be no immediate attention to emergencies on the ground once the current contractor is demobilized.

“Mitigating this risk requires, above all, the following measures:

“Maintain the level of the reservoir at a maximum level of 408 meters above sea level, in order to:

“(i) Allow time to inspect, frequently enough, the landfill along its length and carry out the necessary maintenance and repair work. During the inspection and execution of maintenance and repair work, the spillway gates will be closed, and a temporary increase in the level of the reservoir would be admissible.

“(ii) Improve the stability of the dam, duly considering that to date a hydraulic effect remains to be clarified that indicates the possible existence of a percolation path not captured by the geophysical exploration.

“(iii) Maintain a wide, free edge in case of tsunamis caused by landslides of the slopes along the reservoir or the right abutment of the dam.

“(iv) Increase the retention volume during flood peaks, at least until a sufficient number of generation units are available to contribute to flood evacuation.

“(v) Implement an intermediate discharge independent of the main intakes on the right bank with sufficient capacity to lower the reservoir level below 380 meters above sea level.

“Based on the analysis carried out by Pöyry, this report concludes that the only feasible and reliable way to ensure the total safety of the project works, thus avoiding major environmental and social disasters in the short, medium and long term, is to complete and operate the project safely, as soon as possible,” the report concludes.