Colombia GDP Growth Approaching 9%, Industrial Confidence Hits Record, Covid-19 Threat Plummeting

Colombia’s projected GDP (“PIB” in Spanish initials) for full-year 2021 is now seen at between 8.19% and 9.5%, according to the latest forecast from Fedesarrollo, the nation’s leading economic think-tank.

Meanwhile, Colombia’s industrial confidence index (“Índice de Confianza Industrial,” ICI) has just hit its highest level in 41 years, according to Fedesarrollo — highlighted in an October 25 announcement from Colombia’s Ministry of Commerce.

“The Fedesarrollo Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) reached the highest level in 41 years in September, driven by the current level of orders, a fall in inventories and an expansion in the indicator of production expectations,” the Ministry noted, citing Fedesarrollo’s latest study.

“The ICI stood at 20.4% in September in its original series, which represents an increase of 4.7 percentage points compared to August and an increase of 14.3 points compared to September 2020. The quarterly moving average was 17.4%, which is equivalent to an increase of 4.8 points compared to the same measurement last month.

“This result is mainly explained by the increase of 7.3 percentage points in the current volume of orders, together with a decrease of 4.4 points in the level of inventories and the increase of 2.5 points in the indicator of production expectations. for the next quarter.

“Regarding industrial employment expectations for the next quarter, these increased to 17.7%, which implies an increase of 6.0 points compared to the previous quarter,” the analysts added.

Meanwhile, Colombia just received another 1.5 million doses of Moderna’s highly effective vaccine against Covid-19, on the heels of receiving another 2.25 million doses from Sinovac – hence overcoming temporary shortages of both vaccines in various Colombian cities.

As of today (October 26), Colombia nationwide is about to surpass 46.5 million shots against Covid-19, for a population of just over 50 million people.

In Medellin, the Covid-19 vaccination campaign is now at 88% of targeted coverage, with 2.9 million doses already applied and “herd immunity” forecast to become effective by late November, according to the Mayor’s Office.

As for Antioquia generally (including Medellin and the metro area), more than 6 million people here have already gotten shots against Covid-19, according to the departmental government.